733 replies to this topic

[BlueStarSaber]

Didn't the Original Tokyo Ghoul manga final volume get better sale than Naruto's or was rated higher as the better ending?  

[Namaenash]

 

You should have kept reading, because it demonstrates the flaw in your conclusions. Let's go over your text, in pink. 

 

"Naruto started its downward spiral when NH appears at volume cover 64 in FY 2013 (decline of ~15% from FY 2012, and never went up.), Naruto dug its own grave with the help of NH/SS to make another timeskip plot (i.e. the "New Era Project") launch"

 

I hope you aren't arguing that a pairing is bad for sales. Not only do I find any idea of a pairing like this destroying sales, but it's proven to hold little water when a movie medium is thrust forward that does extremely well.

 

Further, the Last Volume sold more than several of the last few volumes before it. I.E., it went up, which shows the falseness of your last point. 

 

"New Era Project" didn't go as planned. No one in their right mind would plan this: "Let's have a new timeskip plot for the 3rd Best Selling Manga in the history, so that we can decrease the sales by 80%".

 

Yet as I said, the last movies did well. Merchandise, the last volume sold well. That you refuse to go gather this information, or ignore what I am writing that is presenting the information is -your- error in your analysis. 

 

You don't see Naruto in 2015, because it sold only one volume that year, so I'm not sure where you are getting with that either. 

 

A good, respectful analyzer reads everything. Who cares if you disagree, or if you find an idea laughable. There could be treasure somewhere that helps either cement your own points, or adjust them accordingly. Even if you don't find anything, your arrogance will only blind you. 

 

A good, respectful analyst reads key metrics and relevant data with scientific approach. Not necessarily "everything". She would be able to distinguish the signal from the noise. The signal is the truth, the noise is what distracts us from the truth.

 

Reading signal can be as simple as reading the source raw facts instead of listening to opinions. I would humbly consider that debating with someone who does not appreciate lifetime values when it comes to product analysis is a noise. Debating with someone who are not able to differentiate between trending up and trending down is a noise. Debating with someone who make claims without bringing facts is a noise.

 

Therefore, I mentioned it earlier: let's agree to disagree. As simple as that. You can be happy with your opinion that the direction WSJ took was the best. Similarly, I can also be contend with my conclusion that they've made the biggest mistake ever. I'm happy with the facts that the latest sales of this series seems to support my conclusion.

 

I don't force people to validate me, or agree with me. I presented facts. It's up to the readers to interpret. I don't need validation from a stranger from the internet.

 

Having said that, I've never accused someone to be 'wrong', or 'false' or their opinion is 'flawed'. I've never force people to agree with my opinion. I'm not the authority of Naruto series. I have no rights to accuse someone else for being incorrect. So, not sure where the arrogance comment coming from. In research and engineering world, 'arrogance' is telling other researchers' findings are wrong and flawed without proper facts and proof.

 

Guess what? both of us do not have the proper facts. Only WSJ does. Both you and I are not the authority of Naruto series. We are just concluding our individual opinion. The key difference is, when I present my findings, I bring in facts from the closest measurements possible (oricon.co.jp) for people to analyze and for them to form their own opinion. Your findings such as merchandise sold well, was not backed up with facts. What's the basis? sold well against which period? how was it compared YoY? etc. None of us, except WSJ has this data. And for you to appreciate if a sales is better or not, you need to have a basis of past data, i.e. lifetime values --something you chose as not relevant.

 

Naruto manga sold ~220 million copies, yet, it only has 72 volume. Read your own comments about the last volumes trending up and try to make sense of your own opinion. Not even WSJ or Kishi dare to make the claim the the last volume of Naruto series had the best sales. You see, just as the ability to devise simple but evocative findings is the signature of people who understand the mechanics of analysis. Overelaboration and overparameterization is often the mark of mediocrity.

 

I'm happy enough to conclude that the ending was disastrous to the series. I'll let the latest data support my findings and I'll let other members of this forum to be the judge.

[sushi.]

Study of literature is -not- study of science or math or law. Please delete the word -fact- in your vocabulary because it does not belong in a literary discussion. A mangapanel or an interview is not data, the databook is data and a panel is up to as many interpretations as there are people in this world.

 

You may argue the movie's success but considering the rampage on 2chan and fans in Japan wanting their money back - because no one knew it'd be a NH movie and a lot of tickets were bought in advance, you are showing off numbers without context. I'm not sure if you were here in 2014 but I was living for that drama, looking at Japanese fans tear promo posters in pieces and call every character a kittenbag.

[sushi.]

A mangapanel can be considered fact if it's a direct statement not a scene which requires analysis. Interviews I consider not because Kishimoto uses them to contradict 'facts' in the manga which makes everything very blurry and up to like I said interpretation. (Whether he contradicted himself or not is another discussion you've beaten to death already so let's not get into that again).

[Bail o' Lies]

If 220 million volumes of Naruto have been sold. Then the mean would be if their are 72 volumes is that each sold roughly 3 million or 3,055,555.556 volumes each. The last volume sold around a million. Highest selling volume?

Edited by Bail o' Lies, 28 August 2017 - 08:58 PM.

[Namaenash]

Here we go again...
 

None of this discusses the argument at hand, which is interesting, more a complaint of the approach and how no one is an authority.Arrogance was put at "I stopped reading". You did not take time to take into the full explanation, because it put forward a position you disagree with.

 

Well, Analyzer, yet, none of your reply also addressed my earlier questions which is also amusing. You also did not answer one simple question I asked earlier because it put forward a position you disagree with. Here, let me bring my earlier question to you and let me know if you still think lifetime values is not required.
 

Sales for FY 2015, which includes volume 72, amounts to 3,498,177, Yet, according to you, volume 72 being the highest selling volume sold about 1,324,693 for the given period. Where does the remaining ~2.1 million goes?

 

The answer to above question leads to another position in the argument: Both of us do not have the proper facts. Only WSJ does. Whatever facts that we have lead us to one clear conclusion: that people start leaving the series at certain point. Today, Naruto Next Generation sold about 254k as per their latest volume. I'm happy to conclude the series is trending down. I'm contend enough to conclude that the ending was disastrous to the series, I'm very happy that NH/SS may play a big part of this downfall; and NS never plays part of this downfall.

 

Agree to disagree, if you found yourself in a different position, by all means. You don't need validation from stranger like me just to overcome the insecurities that Naruto series left many people disappointed, hence the downward spiral.

 

 

If 220 million volumes of Naruto have been sold. Then the mean would be if their are 72 volumes is that each sold roughly 3 million or 3,055,555.556 volumes each. The last volume sold around a million. Highest selling volume?

 

Nice. someone gets my point :) Take note though, I suppose we don't really know how much exactly the last volume was sold. No one really knows what was the average sales for each volume. So, in the absence of accurate data, no harm to make such assumption (it's worldwide sales btw, in which probably ~90% to ~95% transacted in Japan). In any case, the 220 million is valid as per wikipedia and interview. That's very huge no doubt. It's too bad it ended miserably.

 

 

Study of literature is -not- study of science or math or law. Please delete the word -fact- in your vocabulary because it does not belong in a literary discussion. A mangapanel or an interview is not data, the databook is data and a panel is up to as many interpretations as there are people in this world.

 

You may argue the movie's success but considering the rampage on 2chan and fans in Japan wanting their money back - because no one knew it'd be a NH movie and a lot of tickets were bought in advance, you are showing off numbers without context. I'm not sure if you were here in 2014 but I was living for that drama, looking at Japanese fans tear promo posters in pieces and call every character a kittenbag.

 

Spot on! Literature is up to interpretation. People can always agree to disagree and enjoy the literature however they want.

Edited by Namaenash, 29 August 2017 - 02:36 PM.

[Bail o' Lies]

254,000 for *looks it's up* Three volumes the mean is 84,667 per volume, which 84,667/3,055,556=.02771; which is 2.8 Boruto volumes sold for every 100 Naruto volumes sold on average. Didn't even the gaiden sell at least 600,000 in its first month, and the last volume sold 800,000 in it's first week? So it is in decline.

Edited by Bail o' Lies, 30 August 2017 - 09:20 AM.

[Luna]

I saw te latest epsiode. I don't care what anyone says. Sakura is the most beautiful girl in the series. They even show her with long hair in the flashbacks. So sweet

[Namaenash]

I suppose consistency is key when you're debating and presenting your argument. Your argument contradicts each other in the grand scheme of Naruto series. When contradicting arguments came from the same person, logically one of them should be correct according to you right?
 

...
Oh look, an upward trend.
...

 

....
If you are directly connecting the new series with old, yes, there is a decay
...

 
I disagree to differentiate between old series and new series. They are still within the same franchise: Naruto. full stop. We're debating this series/franchise's performance and comparing against its past: my stand is firm that it's trending down. No ifs or buts.
 
Boruto tagline is "Naruto Next Generation" and it is canon. Its written and drawn by the same author (for the gaiden and first few chapters). The same author acts as Editor today, in other words, Kishi still direct it, there's no reason otherwise.
 
Nothing is holding him back to create another series, but I suppose he's probably bound by contract to lead Boruto series.
 
Back in late 2013 when the infamous "New Generation" poster was drawn by Kishi (I recall it was the one with Team 7 wearing cowboy attire), we all speculate there would be another time skip and the storyline will be adjusted to support that time skip scenario. Fast forward to November 2014, we all know the answer with the last 2 chapters and Boruto series.
 
I'd like to assume they made the decision based on an assumption that another time skip with Naruto's kids will bring a new batch of fresh readers, getting their position back as #2 below One Piece and ultimately prolonging this series for more years to come. It's a business decision to go with NH and SS, based on their best knowledge at that point in time.
 
 

We don't -need- lifetime values. If we were going by that, then the latest one would still be doing rather well, considering its the youngest of the bunch. 
....

 

The remaining 2.1 is a simple answer. Because I had searched for this per volume, it was the previous two volumes, which would then re-inforce the position of a jump.
....

 
So, you agree we need lifetime values? Again, you're contradicting yourself. Btw, you're making assumption that the latest one would still be doing rather well. Do you know that the latest Naruto volume exit Top 50 Sales in Japan within 5 weeks? That's quite short compared to some of its past volumes. I've seen some volumes stay up till 8-9 weeks in Top 50 Sales (during its golden time). You can find how long Naruto volumes sold within Top 50 (especially before volume 64). There's quite a bunch of volumes with such cases, therefore it's not surprising that its managed to sell ~220 million copies.
 
Let's sidetrack a bit to appreciate lifetime values. The recent Wonder Woman movie did very well in US Domestic Box Office. However, it started modestly as compared to other movies from the same producer.
 

Here s how it looks in the first 10 days

First 10 days of Wonder Woman movie:

 

... and here's how it looks after 21 days

Wonder Woman Movie box office after 21 days

 

Apply the same logic, and you have the conclusion that although its the "youngest of the bunch" it doesn't warrant a worst or better performance. Hence the importance of lifetime values. Again, we don't have these lifetime figures and can only guess based on best available data. Latest volume didn't stay after 5 weeks in Top 50 Sales; whilst Naruto total sales is ~220 million for 72 volumes. Again, latest Boruto volume sold about ~254k. You can refer to the series of posts that I made, starting from this post.

 
You also mentioned about Boruto movie performance. While I appreciate your argument, we're talking about two different things here if you want to also mix movies in our discussion.

 

I never brought up movies and I've also never disagree with you that Boruto did very well commercially for Naruto movies.

 

However, when you analyze a series, you normally do not mix with other products which are sold to different market segment. Though I'm just an engineer/researcher, these sort of things are quite basic for those familiar with market analysis.
 
The group of people buying Naruto manga series and watching Naruto anime series are "subscribers", or "returning customers" --they anticipate the next release and continue consuming the product in a relatively longer terms (until they find the product no longer satisfactory).
 
The group of people watching Naruto movie in cinema are a mixture of subscribers and casual/occasional buyers. The occasional buyer don't necessarily buy Naruto manga. It's apparent in Boruto movie, where it did well compared to the rest of Naruto movies, but never went into Top 10 (or Top 100 by recent NHK poll). Make sense?

 

Again, I'll present the numbers and I'll let the other readers to conclude (domestic figures only without adjustment for inflation and/or forex fluctuation).

 

Naruto: Road to Ninja (USD 17.9 million) --> numbers reported by eiren.org did not include the additional Road to Ninja screening that was done when The Last was in cinema (remember there was a sudden special screening across selected theaters in Japan when the The Last movie was in the cinemas? First time in Naruto's history, as far as I know, to air previous movie btw. I wonder why...)

Naruto: The Last (USD 19.84 million)

Boruto The Movie (USD 22.1 million)

 

We can easily say that Boruto The Movie did better than The Last. Subsequently, The Last did better than Road to Ninja.

 

These are facts, no arguments there. But again, facts without context are quite meaningless. The context can be anything, since life is not just anime series. It can be economic situation, seasonality, competition, etc. The three of these Naruto movies were released in different months of its respective year. Seasonality matters because it determines which period customers prefer to go to cinema. The Japanese box office champion of 2015 managed to gross USD 65 million (Yo-kai Watch), while back in 2012 the box office champion was Brave Hearts: Umizaru at USD 61 million. Market condition matters, because if overall market is low, your product will also get impacted (remember Japan had recession back in 2012?). And so on... my point is, we will never be able to make apple-to-apple comparison when it comes to market segment with a mix of subscriber and casual / occasional consumers.

 

In essence, movie products are not in the same league as series (manga/tv). MPAA has a pretty good data about the kind of mixtures of moviegoers out there. In US alone, the share of occasional buyers  is about 50% of the overall population that bought movie tickets. That's 1 out of 2 --a significant portion.

 

Sorry for the long post. Just got back from biz trip from Europe and I need to shake off the jetlag...

Edited by Namaenash, 22 September 2017 - 08:46 PM.

[Bail o' Lies]

"I disagree to differentiate between old series and new series. They are still within the same franchise: Naruto. full stop. We're debating this series/franchise's performance and comparing against its past: my stand is firm that it's trending down. No ifs or buts."

 

I completely agree with this. Boruto is much less a new series as a continuation of Naruto; at least as far as production. For the manga they made sure for to try and keep awareness that the Boruto manga was coming form when Naruto till the start of Boruto with: movies, light novels, events, one shots, and so on. The anime they kept the Naruto anime going on for years till they were ready to start Boruto. Once they were; they ended Naruto and started the Boruto anime only after a week break. If the franchise has that big a drop in that short a periode of time, and when they were making sure to keep awareness of the series large then that says a problem somewhere.

 

"Boruto tagline is "Naruto Next Generation" and it is canon. Its written and drawn by the same author (for the gaiden and first few chapters). The same author acts as Editor today, in other words, Kishi still direct it, there's no reason otherwise.

 

Nothing is holding him back to create another series, but I suppose he's probably bound by contract to lead Boruto series."

 

That's not the tagline, that's the title; Boruto: Naruto Next Generation. The gaiden Mangaka was Kishimoto, while in theory the first ten chapters of Boruto were based off the movie he wrote but were done by Ikemoto (though according to Tricksie the art comes off that kishimoto had to constantly step in to finish those chapters because ikemoto wasn't capable.)

 

Actually kishimoto before he became the editor; really supervisor. He couldn't stop talking about how glad he was to be done with Naruto and how he was going to do a sci fi manga. Which he kept going on and on about till suddenly he was the editor/supervisor of Boruto.

Edited by Bail o' Lies, 10 May 2021 - 10:23 PM.

[totherpage95]

the dubbed naruto shippuden is still not finished... I think the quality of the dub has gone down after so much time

[Bail o' Lies]

The dubbed naruto shippuden is still not finished... I think the quality of the dub has gone down after so much time

You still watch it? It has been years since Naruto been important in the American anime fanbase. If it wasn't for Boruto it would still be at the back of adult swims' line up. So, cost cutting measure where they could be applied have probably been taken. Not only that but from the few times the voice actors mention Naruto anymore they are bored with it. It has been over ten years at this point since it been on prime-time either they are well known for another role they played, or they are retired except for the few things they are still on, like Naruto. Also none of them really like nH or SS from people that talked to them about it -I recall at least one member doing this on the site- they don't like the direction the story has gone, and think it bad. So, the voice actors are old, disinterred, and passionless about Naruto now a days as the voices of the characters giving decent but by the numbers performances.

[TheFirstEvil100]

Okay 2 days ago I got a stupid video with Boruto now I was going to remove it until I saw what it said.

Naruto's Secret Stash | Boruto: Naruto Next Generations

And it shows Hinata holding the porn book that Kakashi always reads it seems that Naruto was hiding it from Hinata. I guess he gets more enjoyment reading book porn.

[Derock]

Okay 2 days ago I got a stupid video with Boruto now I was going to remove it until I saw what it said.

Naruto's Secret Stash | Boruto: Naruto Next Generations

And it shows Hinata holding the porn book that Kakashi always reads it seems that Naruto was hiding it from Hinata. I guess he gets more enjoyment reading book porn.

 

So SP made Naruto enjoy reading his master's books. Something to remind about Jiraiya.

 

Ideas of Rewritten Future

One of my fanfic ideas in a rewritten future, around after the war, Naruto "inherited" Jiraiya's fortune from the Icha Icha franchise. By the time when the money is about to be gone, due to Naruto's goodwill of donating to Konoha's reconstruction, Sakura's idea of a children hospital (stole that from that stupid novel) and towards the orphans, and was also the factor of the fans demanding a new book, despite Jiraiya's death. Naruto reluctantly decides to revive the series as a ghostwriter, only during his free time. Kakashi and a handed few knows that Naruto's the author. Sakura and the other women doesn't know (she eventually does later when she founds out about the finances). The revived success of the franchise help continue boosting the ninja world's economy.

[VanitasDS76491]

Okay 2 days ago I got a stupid video with Boruto now I was going to remove it until I saw what it said.
Naruto's Secret Stash | Boruto: Naruto Next Generations
And it shows Hinata holding the porn book that Kakashi always reads it seems that Naruto was hiding it from Hinata. I guess he gets more enjoyment reading book porn.

I'll bet since his wife can't give him enjoyment hell I'll bet he images him doing that stuff with sakura.

[TheFirstEvil100]

I'll bet since his wife can't give him enjoyment hell I'll bet he images him doing that stuff with sakura.

Nah, remember this is canon Narudo, who was just using her, because of Sasuke so really I bet he images him doing that stuff with Sasuke. Since that's all Naruto cares about.

[VanitasDS76491]

Nah, remember this is canon Narudo, who was just using her, because of Sasuke so really I bet he images him doing that stuff with Sasuke. Since that's all Naruto cares about.

Oh right that's true

[BlueStarSaber]

Out of curiosity does boruto volume sales count as Naruto ones?

[Namaenash]

Yes it does.

[totherpage95]

https://bit.ly/2YSE7Hw

any truth to this fact on sasuke

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