Ummm how reliable is this person and where did she/he get those numbers?
I'm asking those same questions. They need to earn a multiple of three times the production cost for the film to be deemed a success. How is that even a realistic possibility for a movie series that has suffered from deficits on several occasions with their movies? The $12 million figure doesn't seem too radical, it's close to my original guesstimate actually.
Oh, and I believe the reason why "The Last" is being released in a minimal amount of theatres in the states has to do with the amount of countries it's being released in. The potential market is greatly expanded by introducing the film to multiple countries with a sizable fanbase. Assuming "The Last" earns a following of 850,000 people with a price rate of $12-15 per ticket, that comes out to $10.2-12.75 million. Not enough to quite meet this individual's exorbitant expectations, but still worth more than nearly all of the other Naruto films combined, I think.