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The Last theory: Collection of Info & co.

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#48841 Princess Iris

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 09:23 AM

 
The production value of the soundtrack is likely being factored into the box office revenue of the film itself for a return. Any additional merchandise, including the soundtrack CD, are just accessories intended to garner additional profit. Although I'm not sure what the manufacturing cost is for things like clocks, posters, and coins. Any revenue gained from overseas markets will help them to earn back at least some of what they invested.
 
I do believe that The Last will earn a net gain for Pierrot in the end. The question is whether it surpasses expectations for overtaking RtN or not.


The musicians are paid for singing right?
they take good amount of it actually ..so yes the production cost here is way way higher...

even if it surpasses RTN ...IDC
since there is a huge backlash

& I thank to God that NS didn't happen this way

#48842 Popuri

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 09:27 AM

I still want to know why the interview can be considered as a fake since there's a screenshot article of it  :confused:


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#48843 Atheck

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 09:30 AM

The musicians are paid for singing right?
they take good amount of it actually ..so yes the production cost here is way way higher...

even if it surpasses RTN ...IDC
since there is a huge backlash

& I thank to God that NS didn't happen this way

 

The backlash alone is not enough to drive back the notion that Pierrot's decision was idiotic. The only opportunity we may get to see this issue of success vs failure resolved is by waiting for the spin-off to fail.


Edited by Atheck, 07 January 2015 - 09:30 AM.


#48844 TerrorKing

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 09:47 AM

It's not just a about the production budget of the movie itself, it's also about the cost of promoting the movie. Sometimes the promotional budget can be as high as the production budget. I don't know about the merchandise, but I assume that that is also funded by either SP or WSJ.

 

There is no doubt that when you factor in both promotion and merchandise, that this is an incredibly costly production. The biggest advantage has no doubt been that this was touted as not only the last Naruto movie ever (lies!), but also that it would act as chapter 699.5. This automatically ensures a bigger audience and more hype.  

 

Even with the refunds, this movie had a very succesful opening weekend and the question is if that is all that truly matters. That's how it is in the video game industry. It's no longer about long term profit. Now it's all about preorders and selling well on release. If a game has a succesful release, then everything else doesn't really matter. 

 

I don't know. Even if this movie turns out to be a financial succes, that won't help Kishi and SP in the long run. You can't buy trust, so even if The Last is a succes, I don't see how the Bolt movie will be a succes. Not only because of all the negative backlash, but also because it's a spinoff and spinoffs are almost never as succesfull as the original. 

 

I mean personally, I have no interest whatsoever in part 3, not just because it's based on a false premise (asspulls and retcons), but also because I don't care about any of the characters. Bolt is just a watered down version of Naruto and Himawari is just as bland and uinteresting as her mother. Then there's Salad, who so far is the only character I have any interest in, but that still won't convince me to support this series. I mean for f**cks sake, there's even a chance that it won't even be about ninjas. It could be a mecha series or even a shoujo and while it's Kishi's right to do what he wants with "his" series, that doesn't mean I have to like it.   

 

 

 

I still want to know why the interview can be considered as a fake since there's a screenshot article of it   :confused:

Mostly because of the inconsistent grammar like words being written in a different logographic languages and because it doesn't match with Kishi's usual tone of voice.  


Edited by TerrorKing, 07 January 2015 - 10:10 AM.

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#48845 Atheck

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 10:11 AM

It's not just a about the production budget of the movie itself, it's also about the cost of promoting the movie. Sometimes the promotional budget can be as high as the production budget. I don't know about the merchandise, but I assume that that is also funded by either SP or WSJ.

 

There is no doubt that when you factor in both promotion and merchandise, that this is an incredibly costly production. The biggest advantage has no doubt been that this was touted as not only the last Naruto movie ever (lies!), but also that it would act as chapter 699.5. This automatically ensures a bigger audience and more hype.  

 

Even with the refunds, this movie had a very succesful opening weekend and the question is if that is all that truly matters. That's how it is in the video game industry. It's no longer about long term profit. Now it's all about preorders and selling well on release. If a game has a succesful release, then everything else doesn't really matter. 

 

I don't know. Even if this movie turns out to be a financial succes, that won't help Kishi and SP in the long run. You can't buy trust, so even if The Last is a succes, I don't see how the Bolt movie will be a succes. Not only because of all the negative backlash, but also because it's a spinoff and spinoffs are almost never as succesfull as the original. 

 

I mean personally, I have no interest whatsoever in part 3, not just because it's based on a false premise (asspulls and retcons), but also because I don't care about any of the characters. Bolt is just a watered down version of Naruto and Himawari is just as bland and uinteresting as her mother. Then there's Salad, who so far is the only character I have any interest in, but that still won't convince me to support this series. I mean for f**cks sake, there's even a chance that it won't even be about ninjas. It could be a mecha series or even a shoujo and while it's Kishi's right to do what he wants with "his" series, that doesn't mean I have to like it.   

 

The Last is going to be a commercial success no matter what. If it hasn't yet acquired the figures that Pierrot expected it to with Japan then they have the collective audiences of foreign countries to use as a failsafe. Its subject matter will appeal to the deviants and the vocalists for nH because it doesn't concern them how much needed to be sacrificed or what the original manga was leading up to before the rug was abruptly pulled out from beneath it in the last two chapters. The international monetary reception wouldn't have me so worried if the film was only going to be released in a select few countries. But Pierrot must have foresaw a potential meltdown with the inanity of their otaku shoujo so they're hoping the aforementioned foreign countries will come to their aid to pat them on the back and assure them that they made the right decision. It's one thing to advertise the movie in a few countries, but 7? And that's with the likely possibility of The Last reaching other shores where Hinata is actually perceived as a sympathetic character who deserves the heroineship and whose role in The Last is the most preferable for the series.

 

They don't have to buy it. A large proportion of the Japanese fandom sees fault with the film on the simple basis of the false promotion tactics. They know that flaunting Sasuke and Kakashi in headlines and profiles as characters with significant roles presumably would entice more people to the theatres. Some might have become more wise to these tactics for future films, but if Pierrot chooses to swallow their distaste for Sasuke and feature him heavily with combat and plot significant scenes, that could entice a percentage of the disinclined to return and offer the next film a second chance.


Edited by Atheck, 07 January 2015 - 10:21 AM.


#48846 Konoha'sCrimsonFox

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 10:22 AM

All though, the expense for shipping the films and merchandise overseas can prove challenging. SP is burning money just to expand The Last to foreign shores. They don't make enough, its not going to go well for them and their future projects.


Edited by Konoha'sCrimsonFox, 07 January 2015 - 10:22 AM.

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#48847 TerrorKing

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 10:25 AM

 

The Last is going to be a commercial success no matter what. If it hasn't yet acquired the figures that Pierrot expected it to with Japan then they have the collective audiences of foreign countries to use as a failsafe. Its subject matter will appeal to the deviants and the vocalists for nH because it doesn't concern them how much needed to be sacrificed or what the original manga was leading up to before the rug was abruptly pulled out from beneath it in the last two chapters. The international monetary reception wouldn't have me so worried if the film was only going to be released in a select few countries. But Pierrot must have foresaw a potential meltdown with the inanity of their otaku shoujo so they're hoping the aforementioned foreign countries will come to their aid to pat them on the back and assure them that they made the right decision. It's one thing to advertise the movie in a few countries, but 7? And that's with the likely possibility of The Last reaching other shores where Hinata is actually perceived as a sympathetic character who deserves the heroineship and whose role in The Last is the most preferable for the series.

 

They don't have to buy it. A large proportion of the Japanese fandom sees fault with the film on the simple basis of the false promotion tactics. They know that flaunting Sasuke and Kakashi in headlines and profiles as characters with significant roles presumably would more people to the theatres. Some might have become more wise to these tactics for future films, but if Pierrot chooses to swallow their distaste for Sasuke and feature him heavily with combat and plot significant scenes, that could entice a percentage of the disinclined to return and offer the next film a second chance.

I don't know. There is still the issue of piracy being so prevalent here in the west. I don't doubt that no matter what, The Last will be a succes. From here on out, it's all about the future. 

 

Some japanese fans might be able to give the series a second chance, but it also does seem like alot of them have given up on the series for good. The way I see it, it can go either way. 


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#48848 Princess Iris

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 10:27 AM

I am looking forward to the plot of new series...

what u expct guys??

and one thing keep those business talks aside for a while please

#48849 Atheck

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 10:32 AM

All though, the expense for shipping the films and merchandise overseas can prove challenging. SP is burning money just to expand The Last to foreign shores. They don't make enough, its not going to go well for them and their future projects.

 

They'll earn enough to keep the series afloat - that's my personal suspicion.

 

I don't know. There is still the issue of piracy being so prevalent here in the west. I don't doubt that no matter what, The Last will be a succes. From here on out, it's all about the future. 

 

Some japanese fans might be able to give the series a second chance, but it also does seem like alot of them have given up on the series for good. The way I see it, it can go either way. 

 

Piracy and manga/anime's fringe market trend are the only opposing factors that could set the series back. Although there's still probably enough of the neutrals, the NH/SS fans, and the casuals to maintain a fanbase.



#48850 TerrorKing

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 10:49 AM

Piracy and manga/anime's fringe market trend are the only opposing factors that could set the series back. Although there's still probably enough of the neutrals, the NH/SS fans, and the casuals to maintain a fanbase.

I agree about the casuals and the NH/SS fans. I'm sure that they will more than willing to keep on supporting this series. Like you said, the NH/SS fans don't care as long as their pairings are canon and the casuals most likely just want more Naurot, regardless of quality. 

 

I see neutrals as those who puts the integrity of the storytelling above everything else. Now that the story has been twisted and perverted, I don't see why they would bother with this series anymore. Of course I'm aware that things aren't black and white. Just like there are NH/SS fans who don't like the ending, then there are most likely neutrals who find no problem with it. 

 

To be honest, the piracy problem is the biggest hurdle. Naruto may be a well known series, but it's still part of a nice market. Furthermore shipping fans are only a small part of the fandom. So we have a series that may end up appealing to a small part of a nice fandom.

 

I really don't know. It seems to me like they want to grab an entirely new audience, but a strategy like that almost never works.  


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#48851 Askia31

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 10:50 AM

the last has reached about ¥1.75 billion  now.



#48852 Chatte

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 10:52 AM

I still want to know why the interview can be considered as a fake since there's a screenshot article of it  :confused:

Look at it, lots and lots of clone stamps there...

 

 

the last has reached about ¥1.75 billion  now.

Really? How much is that in USD?


Edited by Chatte, 07 January 2015 - 10:52 AM.

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#48853 Atheck

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 10:57 AM

I agree about the casuals and the NH/SS fans. I'm sure that they will more than willing to keep on supporting this series. Like you said, the NH/SS fans don't care as long as their pairings are canon and the casuals most likely just want more Naurot, regardless of quality. 

 

I see neutrals as those who puts the integrity of the storytelling above everything else. Now that the story has been twisted and perverted, I don't see why they would bother with this series anymore. Of course I'm aware that things aren't black and white. Just like there are NH/SS fans who don't like the ending, then there are most likely neutrals who find no problem with it. 

 

To be honest, the piracy problem is the biggest hurdle. Naruto may be a well known series, but it's still part of a nice market. Furthermore shipping fans are only a small part of the fandom. So we have a series that may end up appealing to a small part of a nice fandom.

 

I really don't know. It seems to me like they want to grab an entirely new audience, but a strategy like that almost never works.  

 

The Naruto logo still carries a considerable amount of weight. If Pierrot flaunts it with the spin-off then they will earn some measure of success. Not enough to equal the original series, obviously, but enough for it to remain noticeable perhaps.

 

the last has reached about ¥1.75 billion  now.

 

Really? 750 million yen in only a few days time. How magical! Where did you get your information?

 

 

Really? How much is that in USD?

 

That equals 14.7 million roughly.


Edited by Atheck, 07 January 2015 - 10:58 AM.


#48854 Askia31

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 11:02 AM

Look at it, lots and lots of clone stamps there...

 

 
 

Really? How much is that in USD?

$14million

 

road to ninja made ¥1,48mil which was $17mil at the time, but since then japans economy went through some drastic changes, i wonder if that affected the price of the tickets, and if yes in what way.


Edited by Askia31, 07 January 2015 - 11:03 AM.


#48855 EmperorZeo

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 11:04 AM

 

The Last is going to be a commercial success no matter what. If it hasn't yet acquired the figures that Pierrot expected it to with Japan then they have the collective audiences of foreign countries to use as a failsafe. Its subject matter will appeal to the deviants and the vocalists for nH because it doesn't concern them how much needed to be sacrificed or what the original manga was leading up to before the rug was abruptly pulled out from beneath it in the last two chapters. The international monetary reception wouldn't have me so worried if the film was only going to be released in a select few countries. But Pierrot must have foresaw a potential meltdown with the inanity of their otaku shoujo so they're hoping the aforementioned foreign countries will come to their aid to pat them on the back and assure them that they made the right decision. It's one thing to advertise the movie in a few countries, but 7? And that's with the likely possibility of The Last reaching other shores where Hinata is actually perceived as a sympathetic character who deserves the heroineship and whose role in The Last is the most preferable for the series.

 

They don't have to buy it. A large proportion of the Japanese fandom sees fault with the film on the simple basis of the false promotion tactics. They know that flaunting Sasuke and Kakashi in headlines and profiles as characters with significant roles presumably would entice more people to the theatres. Some might have become more wise to these tactics for future films, but if Pierrot chooses to swallow their distaste for Sasuke and feature him heavily with combat and plot significant scenes, that could entice a percentage of the disinclined to return and offer the next film a second chance.

I don't think that the foreign releases are going to make up for it. Anime movies, when released in US theaters tend to make only a few hundred thousand dollars. Hell, Princess Kaguya, which was a true work of art made less than $600,000 in 9 weeks. Does anyone really think the last is going to make more? On top of that, the US is going to be the film's biggest money maker outside of Japan. Imagine how low the figures will be in the other countries. I really don't see it making more than a couple mil collectively, if they're lucky. The Last also has another disadvantage. Word is already out that the movie is nothing more than one big NH retcon. The only people who are going to see it are NH shippers. I don't see normal fans going to see it.

 

That reminds me. Does anyone know how much RTN made during its overseas releases? Especially in the US?



#48856 TerrorKing

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 11:06 AM

 

The Naruto logo still carries a considerable amount of weight. If Pierrot flaunts it with the spin-off then they will earn some measure of success. Not enough to equal the original series, obviously, but enough for it to remain noticeable perhaps.

 

Yeah. At this point, what I really want is for Kishi to admit that this is not the ending he originally wanted. That's what I still believe. Kishi might not be the greatest writer, but I don't think that even he could be this stupid. It will probably be some time before we will get an admission like that, if at all. 

 

It could also be that Kishi is just that incompetent, in which case...meh...


Edited by TerrorKing, 07 January 2015 - 11:17 AM.

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#48857 Askia31

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 11:07 AM

 

The Naruto logo still carries a considerable amount of weight. If Pierrot flaunts it with the spin-off then they will earn some measure of success. Not enough to equal the original series, obviously, but enough for it to remain noticeable perhaps.

 

 

Really? 750 million yen in only a few days time. How magical! Where did you get your information?

 

 

That equals 14.7 million roughly.

http://forums.boxoff...year/?p=1837877



#48858 Rabbit

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 11:11 AM

I am looking forward to the plot of new series...
what u expct guys??
and one thing keep those business talks aside for a while please


I expect lots of BS. More BS, more BS and overflowing with BS in the new series. And lots of appearances of Hinata.

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#48859 TerrorKing

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 11:13 AM

I expect lots of BS. More BS, more BS and overflowing with BS in the new series. And lots of appearances of Hinata.

H8LDHLu.gif

Good! Let the BS flow. Hopefully that will eventually convince what is left of the fandom how truly pathetic this series has become.  :th_yeah:


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#48860 Atheck

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 11:18 AM

I don't think that the foreign releases are going to make up for it. Anime movies, when released in US theaters tend to make only a few hundred thousand dollars. Hell, Princess Kaguya, which was a true work of art made less than $600,000 in 9 weeks. Does anyone really think the last is going to make more? On top of that, the US is going to be the film's biggest money maker outside of Japan. Imagine how low the figures will be in the other countries. I really don't see it making more than a couple mil collectively, if they're lucky. The Last also has another disadvantage. Word is already out that the movie is nothing more than one big NH retcon. The only people who are going to see it are NH shippers. I don't see normal fans going to see it.


"A couple mil" is enough to put the film above RtN and allow the Pierrot the peace of mind knowing they chose the right course of direction by appealing to the nH proponents, Hinata fans, and those with their brains stuck in their genitals. And the casual market is not something to be underestimated. A large number of ticket sales are derived from those who don't follow Naruto normally, but have an interest in watching the films that premiere in theatres every year.
 

That reminds me. Does anyone know how much RTN made during its overseas releases? Especially in the US?


No one is answering that question because they either don't know or they just don't give a damn.

 

Yeah. At this point, what I really want is for Kishi to admit that this is not the ending he originally wanted. That's what I still believe. Kishi might not be the greatest writer, but I don't that even he could be this stupid. It will probably be some time before we will get an admission like that, if at all. 

 

It could also be that Kishi is just that incompetent, in which case...meh...

 

You could that one theory about Yahagi (original assistant that left following the Itachi Pursuit arc) was the brainchild behind much of what made Naruto a success (including the NS dynamic). Now with him gone, Kishi is exposed to the poisonous influences of Hinata fanatics and Pierrot.

 

 

 

I'm sorry, is this "Sorcerer Supreme" intended to be portrayed as a credible source? I just hear him spouting off randomised statistics. The figure on Wikipedia yesterday that had The Last earning 10 billion yen is equally as "credible".







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